Measuring progress

David Pilling of the FT has written a nice history of GDP as a measure of progress, and all its flaws. Here's how he described where the concept came from:

Simon Kuznets, the Belarusian-American economist often credited with inventing GDP in the 1930s, had severe reservations about the concept right from the start...Kuznets had been asked by US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt to come up with an accurate picture of a post-crash America that was trapped in seemingly interminable recession. Roosevelt wanted to boost the economy through spending on public works. To justify his actions, he needed more than just snippets of information: freight-car loadings or the length of soup-kitchen lines. Kuznets’ calculations indicated that the economy had halved in size from 1929 to 1932. It was a far more solid basis on which to act.

When it came to data, Kuznets was meticulous. But what, precisely, should be measured? He was inclined to include only activities he believed contributed to society’s wellbeing. Why count things like spending on armaments, he reasoned, when war clearly detracted from human welfare? He also wanted to subtract advertising (useless), financial and speculative activities (dangerous) and government spending (tautological, since it was just recycled taxes). Presumably he wouldn’t have been thrilled with the idea that the more heroin consumed and prostitutes visited, the healthier an economy.

Kuznets lost his battle. Modern national income accounts include both arms sales and investment banking services. They don’t distinguish between social “goods” – say, spending on education – and social “bads” (or necessities) – say, gambling, repairing the damage after hurricane Katrina or preventing crime. (Countries without much crime miss out on related economic activity such as security guards and repairing broken windows.) GDP is amoral. It is defined simply as the total monetary value of everything that has been produced in a given period.
— David Pilling, FT, July 4, 2014
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Immersive power play

Macbeth is a Shakespearean play about power, doing whatever it takes to get it, and subsequent remorse. New York's Park Avenue Armory is the most amazing performance space. The two came together for me recently.

To get to my seat I walked through a muddy heath, a murky landscape, reminiscent of Stonehenge. The lighting in this colossal space was gorgeous. The colors were mostly mud brown and red. At times sound effects billowed from every corner. Set in medieval Scotland, the production emphasized the clan-based power structure. After two gripping hours I stumbled out again over the rocky terrain to the sound of a lone bagpiper. A totally immersive experience from start to finish - like a film but better.  This video sets the scene.


Revealing carbon footprints

The FT reports (June 22, 2014) that pressures are mounting on pension funds to report the long term risks of their investments in carbon intensive companies. The issue here is that if funds have big portfolios of firms with high carbon emissions, such as oil and coal, this will lead to big losses from stranded assets in the long term. Pension funds need to manage this risk, says the FT, and people saving for retirement need to know what their fund managers are doing about it.

Many publicly listed companies will also be required to report their carbon footprint. According to the FT, from September this year more than 1000 UK companies will have to report their carbon emissions. The EU will require more than 6000 companies to report on environmental indicators from 2016. In the US, on the other hand, the SEC has written guidelines for reporting climate risk but most companies do not yet do so.

A non-profit called CDG collects and shares measures of environmental footprint. They are campaigning for pension funds to commit to measure and publish their carbon exposure by the next UN Climate Summit.

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Companies ignore governments on carbon

A new report claims that 60-80% of coal and gas reserves of listed firms are unburnable. That's if the carbon emissions agreement made in 2010 among governments has teeth. According to this agreement emissions must be cut to limit global temperature increases to no more than 2%.

The report by Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute at LSE says that if current levels of capital spending continue over the next decade, then over $6 trillion will be allocated to developing fossil fuels. And it says much of this will be wasted on unburnable assets.

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Almost everything in "Dr Strangelove" was true

Recently I had the chance to see Stanley Kubrick's film "Dr Strangelove" again on the big screen - fifty years after it was first released in 1964.

The film, about a crazy US general triggering a nuclear attack against Russia, is breathtakingly perceptive. As the New Yorker noted in a recent article titled "Almost Everything in 'Dr Strangelove' was true":

Although “Strangelove” was clearly a farce, with the comedian Peter Sellers playing three roles, it was criticized for being implausible. An expert at the Institute for Strategic Studies called the events in the film “impossible on a dozen counts.” A former Deputy Secretary of Defense dismissed the idea that someone could authorize the use of a nuclear weapon without the President’s approval: “Nothing, in fact, could be further from the truth.”...

The first casualty of every war is the truth—and the Cold War was no exception to that dictum. Half a century after Kubrick’s mad general, Jack D. Ripper, launched a nuclear strike on the Soviets to defend the purity of “our precious bodily fluids” from Communist subversion, we now know that American officers did indeed have the ability to start a Third World War on their own. And despite the introduction of rigorous safeguards in the years since then, the risk of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear detonation hasn’t been completely eliminated.
— Eric Schlosser, The New Yorker, January 23, 2014

Recent estimates put the number of nuclear bombs in existence at over 17,000. Insanely risky. A reminder that in politics the (politically) urgent always seems to get in the way of the important. 


Broken house

Why were there almost no prosecutions of investment bankers for the 2008 financial crisis? Jesse Eisinger, the excellent reporter at ProPublica and frequent guest columnist for the New York Times argues plausibly for something more systemic than foot dragging:

Many assume that the federal authorities simply lacked the guts to go after powerful Wall Street bankers, but that obscures a far more complicated dynamic. During the past decade, the Justice Department suffered a series of corporate prosecutorial fiascos, which led to critical changes in how it approached white-collar crime. The department began to focus on reaching settlements rather than seeking prison sentences, which over time unintentionally deprived its ranks of the experience needed to win trials against the most formidable law firms...

Part of the Justice Department’s futility can be traced to the rise of its own ambition. Until the 1980s, government prosecutors generally focused on going after individual corporate criminals. But after watching their fellow prosecutors successfully take down entire mafia families, like the Gambino and Bonanno clans, many felt that they should also be going after more high-profile convictions and that the best way to root out corruption was to take on the whole organization.
— Jesse Eisinger, New York Times Magazine, April 30, 2014

This explains the rash of huge bank fines over the past few years, rather than jailed "banksters." Another factor seems to me to be the status of a public service careers. In the US, public service is not held in high regard. Moreover, many of the top layers are politicos - they come and go with the President. In the justice system it means that lawyers have become risk averse. They avoid the complex cases and go for something safe. Some of the financial crisis cases might have taken years. As Eisinger explains:

Top governmental lawyers generally don’t want to spend their entire careers in the public sector. Many want to score marquee victories and avoid mistakes and eventually leave for prominent corporate firms with starting salaries at 10 times what they make at the Department of Justice.
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About the nature of power and art

This week at the Tribeca Film Festival in New York I went to the world premier of a documentary about the creative process.  Kevin Spacey and Sam Mendes produce Shakespeare's Richard III together, and then take it on a world tour. Called Now: In the Wings on a World Stage, it's a glossy but rich lens on the magic of live theater. Re-set in the 1930s, and coincidentally playing during the Arab Spring, the production depicts a man who would do whatever it takes to become head of state. Spacey and Mendes talk about the difference between theater and film: in theater every performance is new and unique. Hence the title: Now!

In a separate interview about being a theater director, Sam Mendes says you have to love the process of creating: "One of my favorite quotes from Hamlet is Polonius: 'By indirections find the directions out'. "


Measuring cultures

In my last few years working at the World Bank I ran leadership programs for senior staff with management potential - staff known in the leadership "industry" as "hipos". The Bank must be one of the most culturally diverse workplaces on the planet and has offices in many developing countries. But instead of making the most of this diversity there's a prevailing political correctness that usually leads to conformist behavior, especially at headquarters in Washington.

One of the goals of the leadership program was to try to bring the diversity to life. In one strand of our program we met with leaders from countries as diverse as Ukraine, Mongolia, and Rwanda. What did leadership mean in these cultures? In Ukraine we met businessmen who had built clean corporate cultures in a sea of corruption, in Mongolia we met with politicians grappling with all the risks of a mineral boom, and in Rwanda we met leaders from all walks of life managing the aftermath of genocide. It was an extraordinary experience.

But an easier way to explore culture and leadership is to read a new book by Erin Meyer, called The Culture Map: Breaking Through the Invisible Boundaries of Global Business. Erin, who works for INSEAD business school in Paris, and participated in one of my programs, is a stunningly good teacher. In the book she provides a map across 8 dimensions for looking at cultural diversity and then harnessing it. The map is simply a discipline to pause, take stock, and be deliberate, rather than jumping to conclusions. If you are managing a team face to face or virtually, lining people up on the map makes you much more aware of team dynamics and how to manage it.

Here are a couple of excerpts from an article she wrote in the Harvard Business Review based on her book. In the map below, she is comparing an Israeli with a Russian:

Communicating: When we say that someone is a good communicator, what do we actually mean? The responses differ wildly from society to society. I compare cultures along the Communicating scale by measuring the degree to which they are high- or low-context, a metric developed by the American anthropologist Edward Hall. In low-context cultures, good communication is precise, simple, explicit, and clear. Messages are understood at face value. Repetition is appreciated for purposes of clarification, as is putting messages in writing. In high-context cultures, communication is sophisticated, nuanced, and layered. Messages are often implied but not plainly stated. Less is put in writing, more is left open to interpretation, and understanding may depend on reading between the lines.

Deciding: This scale, based on my own work, measures the degree to which a culture is consensus-minded. We often assume that the most egalitarian cultures will also be the most democratic, while the most hierarchical ones will allow the boss to make unilateral decisions. This isn’t always the case. Germans are more hierarchical than Americans, but more likely than their U.S. colleagues to build group agreement before making decisions. The Japanese are both strongly hierarchical and strongly consensus-minded.
— Erin Meyer, HBR, May 2014
Erin Meyer, HBR, May 2014

Erin Meyer, HBR, May 2014


The eclipse of capitalism?

One reason I'm interested in how we measure progress is that the economy is changing in ways that makes the concept of some economic statistics obsolete. James Heskett, Professor at Harvard Business School writes about this new economy, drawing on a book by Jeremy Rifkin, called The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism. Heskett explains:

An important driver is the Internet of Things that connects information about everything and everybody on a real-time basis, providing all of us with a wealth of information that will accelerate productivity gains and encourage collaboration and sharing on what Rifkin terms a “collaborative commons.” As marginal costs approach zero, the driving forces of capitalism—profit and investment—are neutered. As a result, a social sector that doesn’t rely on profit will play a larger role in the creation and distribution of goods and services, becoming a more significant employer in the process.

How about employment? Will a post-capitalist society create or destroy jobs? For example, Airbnb now lists on its site more than 600,000 accommodations, from rooms to sofas, with choice locations (even if on a sofa) going for as little as $25 per night. Nightly rentals are beginning to exceed the volumes of the largest hotel chains. What happens if the chains, with much higher marginal costs, are forced to cut back on employment? What are the implications for manufacturing if we are able to manufacture many of the things we need on our 3-D printers with recycled materials? Will the Internet of Things and “collaborative commons” enable even greater productivity and efficiency leading to fewer jobs? Or do these innovations foster self-employment in renting our rooms or printing our products? As marginal costs and prices approach zero, how much income are we going to need anyway? How will this affect the distribution of wealth?
— James Heskett, Harvard Business School in HBS Working Knowledge April 2, 2014
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Portraits of Big Men

This past weekend I watched the latest Errol Morris documentary The Unknown Known (2013) about former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. (Unknown knowns in Rumsfeld-speak means the things you thought you knew, but didn't.)

I'm a big fan of Morris' earlier Oscar winning documentary Fog of War about another former Defense Secretary Robert McNamara. McNamara is interesting because he is grappling with how he could have made better decisions. What I felt was brilliant about this film was the way Morris provided the context in which McNamara was working. His milieu, including the intellectual fads of the day and the personalities and events orbiting around him, and how this shaped his decisions.  The result was gripping.

In The Unknown Known, Rumsfeld keeps his armor up almost all the way through. There was little context - maybe Morris thought this unnecessary as the events are so recent. The format was almost a mirror of the one Morris used in Fog of War. The result was a bit boring.

Portraits are more revealing when they show how the character and the milieu come together to make the tragedy. I think there was something more interesting to say here.


Do banks add value?

In previous posts I've cited studies estimating the cost to the US of the 2008 financial crisis and the value of the free guarantee that taxpayers provide to banks through the "too big to fail subsidy." Last month the New York Federal Reserve estimated the subsidy meant $60m-$80m of cost savings per average new bond sale over their smaller competitors. 

Last week the IMF updated it previous estimates:

In 2012, the implicit subsidy given to global systemically important banks represented up to $70 billion in the United States, and up to $300 billion in the euro area, depending on the estimates.
— Global Financial Stability Report, March 31, 2014

As mentioned in earlier posts, this (US) subsidy is about the same size as profits by big US banks. Worse, these subsidies feed excessive risk-taking putting taxpayers at risk of bailouts like we saw in 2008. The new numbers feed into the ongoing US debate about whether to break up big banks and/or force them to hold more capital. The next high profile estimate will come from the US General Accounting Office mid year.


Flash Boys and networks

I've read a few of Michael Lewis's books. Liars Poker, The Big Short come to mind. He's a great story teller. So I feel impelled to read his latest on high frequency trading, a subject on which I've done some earlier posts. Here is the 60 Minutes short (14 minutes) documentary marking the book launch. Lewis says the stock market is rigged. Some traders have invested hundreds of millions in IT infrastructure to make sure they get market moving information first and then they change their prices. The result is described in a memorable analogy in the 60 Minutes program: its like buying 4 tickets online in a theater. You choose 4 seats but only get two and the other two show up at a higher price.

Underlying issue here is how to run networked infrastructure.


Junkyard Planet

Where does all the junk go? A new book, Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion Dollar Trash Trade, by Adam Minter, explains the huge global recycling trade. China is the biggest importer of recycling from the rich world - and scenes of its recycling industry are beautifully (and horrifically) captured in a documentary film Manufactured Landscapes mentioned in an earlier post.

A review of the book by The Economist explains the dynamics of this global industry with annual revenues of more than $500 billion:

China lacks the raw materials it needs, so it imports the metal, often as scrap. This has pushed up prices; a pound of copper has risen from 60 cents in the late 1990s to nearly $3.40 today. Americans, meanwhile, have more scrap than they can handle. Known among scrap traders as the “Saudi Arabia of Scrap”, the country lacks real demand for manufacturing materials. American labour costs are too high—and environmental regulations too onerous—for it to be cost-effective to salvage most scrap anyway. For the savvy, fast-talking businessmen of the international scrap trade, this has created a profitable exchange. It has also driven the kind of innovation that diverts more junk from landfills.
— The Economist, January 11, 2014

I'm reminded of a moving and beautiful documentary Wasteland by artist Vik Muniz and Lucy Walker, a portrait of poor Brazilian recyclers combing the dumps of Rio de Janeiro to eke out a living. Also a story about the transforming power of art.


Measuring progress

America's gross domestic product is about $17 trillion. But what does this number mean? A new short book (GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History by Diana Coyle, 2014) explains where this concept came from, what actually gets measured and what's missing, and how to make it better. A nice easy read for anyone wondering why government measures of economic progress don't count environmental damage and undercount the digital economy. (See earlier related posts on measuring environmental performance February 4; forecasting January 15; the tragedy of bees December 28, 2013; Gross Domestic Freebie December 4, 2013.)

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Green bonds go mainstream

Green bonds are on the rise. These are bonds where the proceeds of an issue are tied to environmental activities.

Green bonds were kicked off by the World Bank in 2008. For a few years international financial institutions were the only issuers because they had the niche and the know-how to define an environmental project. But this is changing. In a story marking a new issue by Unilever earmarked for reducing waste, water use and greenhouse-gas emissions, The Economist magazine explains the dynamics:

In February last year the World Bank’s private-sector arm, the International Finance Corporation, raised a $1 billion green bond—large enough for money managers to take notice. In November a French energy group, EDF, raised €1.4 billion ($1.9 billion), the first euro-denominated green bond from a large company. This marked the point at which corporate issuers took over from IFIs as the main issuers of such bonds. EDF’s was twice oversubscribed. Toyota is raising $1.75 billion to help finance sales of car loans for hybrid and electric vehicles. That bond was even more heavily oversubscribed. Unilever changes the business again. The bonds of EDF and Toyota were for new, self-evidently green projects: renewable energy and electric vehicles. Unilever’s is to reduce the environmental footprint of its ordinary activities.
— The Economist, March 22, 2014

Perhaps a sign that the private sector tide of green growth/impact investing is really becoming mainstream, (while governments fiddle on climate change).

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